The first thing I saw of the new Dignity in Dying Poll was the fanfare from ITV on 𝕏 about a new “public opinion poll” which they claimed shows: “Overwhelming support for legalising assisted dying in UK, largest ever poll finds…”
ITV patently supports assisted suicide / euthanasia so it looked a wee bit suspicious when Dignity in Dying shared the poll “exclusively” with them. Things started to smell fishy when ITV did not provide any reference to the actual data.
The stink increased when the data was not available on the websites for either Dignity in Dying or OPINIUM (the agency performing the poll.) Then it absolutely reeked when I found that portions of text are not visible in the spreadsheet! (This happens in four places: twice in both questions Q6 & Q7. See below.)
Click image to link to ITV segment on “assisted dying” (a.k.a. Assisted Suicide)
The link to the data is below (when clicking on the banner, the file should download to your computer/phone. It then needs to be opened in a spreadsheet program compatible with Microsoft Excel.)
Click image to link to the spreadsheet data on the Dignity in Dying Poll
I received the file link promptly after messaging OPINIUM. They also answered a follow-up question quickly. (“Headline VI” is the respondents “Voting Intention” in the next election.)
The OPINIUM Panel
Like many other polling agencies, OPINIUM uses their “in-house” paid group or “panel” of people for their polls. They know their panel intimately — so must know which individuals are best for a certain outcome.
SurveyPolice reports about OPINIUM’s payment & reward system (below left.)
That said, there are questions as to whether OPINIUM is consistent with their payments & rewards. (See the report from StealthSecrets, below right.)
Click image above to link to SurveyPolice report.
Click image above to link to StealthSecrets webpage.
2,046 (19%) say they do not watch TV news or read newspapers and an additional 2,434 do not watch TV news, so >40% total.
The OPINIUM POLL
The 2024 OPINIUM poll for Dignity in Dying consists of 11 main questions, which were put to 10,897 “UK Adults” from OPINIUM’s paid panel, between 9-22 February 2024.
To be fair, these questions are nothing like the long, compound, emotive questions used in the previous Dignity in Dying poll. (The 2019 poll had only two questions: the first was 141 words and 5 sentences long!!)
Dignity in Dying sponsored two previous British public opinion polls. Both were run by Populus, also from a paid panel. The first was in 2015 taken from 5,018 people and in 2019 from 5,695 folk. (Populus was incorporated later into YONDER.) I reviewed the 2019 Dignity in Dying poll for CA in 2022.
This poll is clearly more…subtle!
Click image to link to read my review of 2019 Dignity in Dying poll.
OPINIUM notes that the results of the current study are: “Weighted to be politically and nationally representative.” (No details are provided on how the weighting is calculated or applied.)
OPINIUM also notes that “in instances where the base size falls below 50 respondents, figures should be seen as indicative only. We advise against using these figures when reporting, unless appropriate caveats are provided.” This occurs in a number of categories.
I use the abbreviation [AS/VE] for Assisted Suicide / Voluntary Euthanasia.
POLITICAL MOTIVATION
Obviously Dignity in Dying & My Death my Decision recognise an opportunity in the next election because Sir Keith Starmer is a vocal supporter of Assisted Suicide!
THE 11 QUESTIONS:
Q1: To what extent would you support or oppose making it legal for someone to seek “assisted dying” in the UK, and how strong is your view?
Questions 2 -5 are of prime importance to the next election, so are of great interest to DiD and have already been used for PR clout! Please consult the data for results — which seem tainted by the issues listed below:
Q2: Looking ahead to after the next General Election, would you want your MP to vote for or against legislation to make assisted dying legal in the UK?
Q3: Now we would like to ask you to think about which of the following statements would best apply to you if you had a terminal illness. Would you consider the option of travelling to Switzerland to have an assisted death, and would you be able to afford the cost?
Q4: Thinking ahead to after the next General Election, would you want the next Parliament to make assisted dying legal in England and Wales?
Q5: Thinking ahead to after the next General Election, do you think the next Parliament will make assisted dying legal [n England and Wales?
Q6: Which of these statements do you agree with more?
numbering suggests 2 lines for each option
The visible text in Box 6/7 is: “Making assisted dying legal would be safer than the current ban, with a safeguarding process for” [which looks like there are only 2 lines of text.]
The full text in Box 6/7 is: “Making assisted dying legal would be safer than the current ban, with a safeguarding process for dying individuals, rather than risking secret, unsupported self-harm or overseas options without UK medical oversight.” (The hidden text makes this a pejorative clause with words like “secret; unsupported self-harm; without UK oversight.”)
The visible text in Box 8/9 is: “Making assisted dying legal would make it less safe than what we have now, as the threat of “ [which looks like there are only 2 lines of text.]
The full text in Box 8/9 is: “Making assisted dying legal would make it less safe than what we have now, as the threat of prosecution under the current law prevents people pressuring others to end their lives.” (Again, the hidden text makes this more pejorative with words like “pressuring others to end their lives.”)
NB: OPINIUM can enlargen boxes as they see fit: look at the size of box “2/3.”
Q7: If assisted dying were legal in the UK, which of these statements would you agree with more?
The visible text in Box 6/7 is: “Assisted dying should be accessible as part of NHS services and people should be able to access” [which looks like there are only 2 lines of text.]
The full text in Box 6/7 is: “Assisted dying should be accessible as part of NHS services and people should be able to access assisted dying through their doctors.”
The visible text in Box 8/9 is: “Assisted dying should not be accessible as part of NHS services and people should access assisted” [which again, looks like there are only 2 lines of text.]
The full text in Box 8/9 is: “Assisted dying should not be accessible as part of NHS services and people should access assisted dying via a separate service.”
NB: OPINIUM can enlargen boxes as they see fit: look at the size of box “2/3.”
Q8: Have you experienced the death of a loved one, such a family member or close friend, in the past ten years? 74% said yes. (I have no way of confirming this number for the general population.)
Q9: Thinking of your loved one who passed away, how would you describe the standard of their end-of-life care?
The poll does not ask about whether the “Loved One” received expert palliative care or not.
The use of the term “Loved One” is subtly tied to “suffering” in the next question.
Q10: Would you say that your deceased loved one suffered at the end of their life?
This is an “all or nothing” question about “suffering” (so DiD can then call for “compassion” and legalisation of AS/VE.)
There are no qualifiers as to degree of “suffering.”
Again, it is relevant whether the person received expert palliative care, especially in the Yes group.
Q11: Do you think that your deceased loved one would have considered having an assisted death if it were legal?
A relevant, but politically based question which does not allow for nuance.
(I can say that I have “considered” the circumstances under which I might choose AS/VE, even though I find it morally and professionally repugnant.)
Items which might cause bias in this poll:
EUPHEMISM
“Assisted dying” / “assisted death” is mentioned in 7 of the 11 questions.
Jon Rogers on 𝕏 pointed out the glaring weakness that OPINIUM did not provide any definition for these euphemisms.
(Nor does OPINIUM use, or define, clearer terms as: “assisted suicide”; “euthanasia”; “voluntary euthanasia”; “medicalised killing.” )
CONFUSION OVER TERMS
It has been shown that many people have an incorrect concept as to what the term “assisted dying” means. Some think that it includes palliative care and voluntary refusal of aggressive treatment and proper pain/symptom control when large doses are required.
OMISSIONS
The poll does not delineate the access to Expert Palliative Care.
Similarly, the poll provides no information about FAILED safety protocols and rapidly increasing numbers in other jurisdictions.
The questions imply the validity and desirability of assisted suicide/euthanasia — PSYOP!
OPINIUM do not say how they selected individual members from their panel (though they have oodles of information on how their people voted in previous surveys!)
OPINIUM do not clarify how the adjustment / “weighting” is performed.
OPINIUM do not provide “credibility intervals” or other statistical validations.
POLL DEMOGRAPHICS
From OPINIUM data under Q1
The current population of the United Kingdom is 67,893,481 as of Tuesday, March 12, 2024 (based on Worldometer elaboration of the latest United Nations.) This means that the OPINIUM study of 10,897 people is 1 person for every 6,230 people in the UK.
Some of the best statistics come from Oregon. Their most recent report is “Year 25” (2022) which was released March 8, 2023. (The 2023 report is expected later this month.)
We can see from the cumulative table above [1998-2020] that AS is an older, educated, higher SEC white-persons disease — with some male preponderance.
SEX
The division of the sexes in the UK population is: Male 49% female 51%.
Curiously in this poll the numbers of male and female add up to 10,798 (so, 99 shy of the 10,897 total answering.)
Note: of those who answered, 54% identify as female. (One wonders if more women agree for legalisation of AS/VE on a compassionate basis.)
AGE
Poll has ~50% of respondents over 50 years of age which does fit with British demographics. The issue is not so much age, but attitude. (It would be easy to select a group of disenfranchised youth who would be happy to consider euthanasia for old, rich people!)
ETHNICITY / RACE
Data from UK Census 2021. Click image to follow the link.
Oregon shows that Assisted Suicide is vastly more common in those of Caucasian descent.
The numbers above shows a large proportion of actual WHITES and that this number is INCREASED when weighted!!
9,343 white people, weighted to 9,556 people!
There are DECREASED numbers of non-white ethnic backgrounds as listed in the poll.
520 were Asian, which is 4.7% of the total — in the 2021 UK Census 9.6% identified as Asian.
340 were Black, which is 3% of the total — in the 2021 UK Census, 4.2% identified as Black.
“Mixed ethnicity” were 242 or 2.2% of the total — in the 2021 UK Census, 3% identified as mixed ethnicity.
“Other/prefer not to say” is 0.8% of the total — in the 2021 UK Census, 2.2% identified as “other ethnic group.”
EDUCATION
**Data was not provided by OPINIUM about the level of education of their respondents.
DISABILITY
First, in this poll the people in this category are self-identified and were not given a definition of Disability. (Which is provided in the Census.)
There must be an error in this category because “disability” has only two options: “Yes” & “Yes”!
If we take NO as the correct heading for the larger right column, this calculates to a 25% disability rate (left column: 2,744) in this poll when national statistics show a prevalence of ~ 18% disability. This will result in bias in favour of AS/VE because the disabled are likely to face adverse circumstances and lack of social supports more often.
To access the 2021 Census please click the image above
SOCIO-ECONOMIC CLASS
Oregon shows that higher SEC correlates with assisted suicide.
The OPINIUM poll uses the NRS Social Grades, as is commonly used in the UK.
Taking the A,B and C1 percentages above, the expected number would be 5,993 people out of the total 10,897.
The poll number is much larger at 6,899 people: so 15% above the expected number.
RELIGION
Click image to link to 2021 Census information
The numbers above come to 4,211 (though OPINIUM reports the NET religious as 4,266. Either way these numbers means that several hundred have not been categorized.)
The numbers of Hindu’s (0.7% v. 1.7%) Muslims (2.8% v. 6.5%) and Sikhs (0.25% v. 0.9%) in the OPINIUM panel are all below the numbers expected in the general population as per the 2021 Census. (Less religious people means less likelihood of votes against AS/VE.)
By the numbers provided only 38% admit to being religious in any way, so again, this gives a bias in favour of a secular outlook, likely in favour of AS/VE.
Also, recall the caution provided by OPINIUM that: “in instances where the base size falls below 50 respondents, figures should be seen as indicative only. We advise against using these figures when reporting, unless appropriate caveats are provided.”
This means that little emphasis can be put on the poll results from Hindu, Jews and Sikhs.
SUMMARY:
This OPINIUM poll is now “the largest ever” poll for Dignity in Dying in the UK on Assisted Suicide.
The poll has major weaknesses limiting it’s validity, including but not limited to:
Small poll size;
The poll is taken from a private list, not from the general public;
OPINIUM knows the attitudes of the people on their panel so can select those with opinions consistent with the commissioning agency!
Respondents are PAID to answer the poll;
Many questions are based on undefined EUPHEMISM;
There are DEMOGRAPHIC DIFFERENCES between respondents & general population;
There is no evidence that the panelists opinions correlate to those of the general public;
OPINIUM omits information which would have properly informed respondents opinion;
There are no credibility intervals or other statistical validations;
OPINIUM provided a spreadsheet of results with hidden text.
I believe these issues invalidate opinions arising from the 2024 OPINIUM poll for Dignity in Dying.
Kevin Hay
You can follow Kevin on 𝕏 @kevinhay77